Forex Flash: Bernanke to correct the early-end-to-QE3 FOMC reading - BBH

Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak in his semi-annual testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. BBH expects him to address recent hawkish reading of the latest FOMC minutes. The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team expects Bernie "to help 'correct' the reading of the recent FOMC minutes that some observers seemed to understand somewhat hawkishly, expecting an early end to QE3."

According to the BBH team, "iIt was only in December that Bernanke led the FOMC to more than doubling its outright long-term asset purchases.," so the possibilities to finish the QE program are reduced. "With economic growth slowing below the pace needed to lower the unemployment rate, we see little reason to expect a change of heart," points the bank.

" A few regional presidents disagree, but they are a minority at the Federal Reserve and especially among the voting members of the FOMC," concludes BBH.

Feb 25, 2013

Fundamental Afternoon Wrap: EUR up on Bersani Trade

A quick look across this afternoons institutional research shows that while the markets seems to have gotten over the UK´s downgrade but the impact as a whole is still being considered. Meanwhile news of victory for Bersani in the Italian election has taken poll position and supported the ´Bersani Trade´, the upsurge through out the days trading on the hope that Berlusconi is defeated.

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Feb 25, 2013

Forex Flash: Race for the Italian Senate quite interesting – TD Securities

For the Senate, initial polls suggest 36% for Centre-left (Bersani), 30% for Centre-right (Berlusconi), 9% for Civic Choice (Monti) and 20% for Five Star (Grillo). "This leaves the race more interesting in the Senate, and still provides some risks, where the regional results are more important and we still don’t have enough details to make a conclusion", wrote TD Securities analysts, adding that "the early instant polls suggest Monti’s coalition could add another 21 seats if needed for a coalition government, so a market-friendly outcome would still be possible". Monti's results came in very disappointing, much below 15% expectations, while Grillo's 20% came in even higher than the 15% forecast. "Most votes require only a simple majority and Constitutional votes do require a super-majority, but one that is overcome if PD and PdL were to agree on any needed changes", they concluded.

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